In recent times, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a lackluster performance, with a noticeable decline in whale activity across major digital assets. Santiment’s latest analysis reveals that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have witnessed a significant drop in transactions exceeding $100k. During the active period of March 13-19, Bitcoin recorded 115.1k transactions valued at over $100k each, showcasing robust activity from large holders. However, by August 21-27, this number had reduced significantly to just 60.2k transactions, indicating a slowdown. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, with whale transactions plummeting from 115.1k to only 31.8k during the same period. Other popular assets like XRP, Toncoin, and Cardano have also experienced similar downward trends.
While the decrease in high-value transactions may raise concerns, Santiment argues that a decline in whale activity does not necessarily signal a bearish future. In fact, whale behavior often corresponds with periods of heightened market volatility, where large players shift assets to take advantage of rapid price fluctuations. The current lower transaction volumes could hint at a phase of market consolidation or a temporary decrease in volatility, rather than a precursor to a market downturn. The data also suggests that despite the overall reduction in activity, there is a pattern of accumulation by top addresses. This indicates that whales may be strategically positioning themselves for upcoming market movements.
According to QCP Capital’s recent analysis, Bitcoin closed August with an 8.6% decline, struggling to recover from the ‘BOJ crash’ earlier in the month and failing to surpass the 65k mark. Ethereum faced an even greater setback, plunging by over 22% during the same period, with alleged selling by Jump Trading exacerbating its decline. Looking ahead, historical trends suggest a bearish leaning for September, with six of the last seven months ending in the red and an average return of approximately 4.5%. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could potentially drop to $55k. However, QCP Capital believes that the cryptocurrency will find strong support around $54k, a level that previously triggered a rebound in July, eventually reaching $70k.
Despite recent turbulence, the Singapore-based trading app remains optimistic about the future of the crypto market. They expect economic data releases such as Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payroll reports to have minimal impact on cryptocurrency prices, as macro data’s influence on the market continues to diminish. Overall, the current landscape of whale activity in the crypto market suggests a strategic and calculated approach by large holders, positioning themselves for potential market movements and price appreciation in the near future.