The recent insights provided by Benjamin Cowen shed light on the complex relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin pricing and the potential for further downside risk. According to Cowen, the ETH/BTC pair is currently experiencing a downtrend, with historical data showing a steep decline in ETHUSD of around 70% following previous declines in the pair. This paints a grim picture for those hoping for an Altcoin season, as Cowen warns of the possibility of further downward movement in the market.
Cowen highlights that the ETH/BTC pair is currently being rejected by the bull market support band, a trend that he had previously predicted due to a price pump. This rejection, according to Cowen, mirrors a similar pattern observed in previous market cycles, hinting at a potential summer capitulation. The launch of Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) also saw a sharp rally in the ETH/BTC pair, further supporting Cowen’s analysis of a potential downtrend.
Despite the market not experiencing an abrupt decrease, Cowen notes that there has been an unmistakable macro downtrend since November 2021, particularly following the merger of the ETH/BTC pair. Investors have chosen to hold onto ETH instead of BTC during this period, likely influenced by the multiple lower highs in the market. However, this sentiment may change as the market continues to evolve.
Looking ahead, Cowen predicts that ETH/BTC will reach between $0.03 and $0.04 by the summer, regardless of the current market conditions. As two of the leading cryptocurrency assets, Ethereum and Bitcoin continue to attract significant interest from investors. However, on-chain analytics from Glassnode suggest a shift in performance between the two digital assets, with Ethereum showing poorer performance in price compared to Bitcoin. This divergence in performance is attributed to a weaker trend in capital rotation and is a cause for concern for investors.
The insights provided by Benjamin Cowen on the downtrend of the ETH/BTC pair raise important questions about the future trajectory of the crypto market. With potential risks and uncertainties looming, investors are advised to conduct their own research and exercise caution when making investment decisions. The evolving dynamics between Ethereum and Bitcoin underscore the volatile nature of the market, and staying informed is key to navigating these challenges effectively.